INTERNATIONAL CROSS-COUNTRY 
COMPARISON OF TRUE-BELIEVER VOTERS

 

This research project is a cross-country comparative study of how voters think about the political environment in general, and each election in particular. The study involves three separate phases in two countries:

Phase 1: The Australian Federal Election 2001 (completed)

Over one hundred Australian voters were interviewed in face-to-face interviews during the six months following the 2001 federal election. "True Believers" from each party, as well as swinging voters, were interviewed about their perceptions of past and the current elections. The comprehensive one-on-one qualitative interview methodology allowed for the construction of voter's conceptualisations of the election situation. This methodology is based on award winning research conducted by IDA managing Director, Dr Pamela Ryan, analysing the decisions of investors in the US venture capital industry during the 1990s.

Phase 2: The Australian National Election 2004 (analysis in progress)

Phase 2 involved two components. To enable longitudinal comparisons, as well as comparison and contrast of issues across elections, the 2001 study was replicated after the 2004 Australian federal election. Again, True Believers from each of the main parties were interviewed, as were non-committed swinging voters. The 2001 South Australian sample was followed up within two weeks of the November election, again with an in-depth qualitative interview. To complement the longitudinal qualitative research, Newspoll conducted a national random sample survey within two weeks of the election, on IDA's behalf. 1200 Australian voters were interviewed via telephone, with nine questions being added to Newspoll's weekly Omnibus. Newspoll ensured a representative balance between the states and territories, and of urban and rural voters. Finally, over 120 Newspoll respondents from both urban and rural areas participated in a follow-up qualitative interview, the same interview given to the Australian sample.

Phase 3: The USA National Elections, 2004 (analysis in progress)

The qualitative and quantitative methods adopted in Phases 1 and 2 in Australia were employed in the United States of America in their 2004 elections to enable cross-country comparison of voters' thinking about the political environment. Over 120 respondents from across the US were interviewed while attending the Republican and Democrat National Conventions in New York and Boston, respectively. An additional 60 non-partisan, or swinging, voters have participated in the study with the assistance of Lake and Assoc Inc, a national public opinion research company.

This cross-cultural study will be conducted in collaboration with IDA's international network of research institutions.